Which stock should you buy?

Which stock should you buy?

In the equity market, stock tips are aplenty. Everyone believes themselves to be an expert just because they have a Trading and Demat account and have made some investment in the equity market! Therefore it is very important to have some basic knowledge about share market before you start investing in stocks according to share tips.
There are more than 6000 shares listed in India. But, broadly they can be categorized into four types:
Growth stocks: They are companies which grow faster than its industry or the market. Growth shares do not believe in paying dividends but reinvest profits for expansion and growth. They are marked by high P/E ratio and are always in demand due to potential price appreciation.
Value stocks: They are companies which have good fundamentals but are underpriced as they are temporarily out of favour. Value shares are great picks as they have a greater potential of growth. They have a low P/E ratio and low PBV ratio.
Income stocks: They are companies which regularly pay high dividends. These shares are often less volatile and may limited growth options. Profit from these stocks is in the form of regular dividends declared by the company. They are marked with higher dividend paying ratio.
Penny stocks: They are stocks with low price and low market capitalization. These shares are easy to manipulate because of low volumes. Investing in penny shares is extremely risky as these are extremely speculative in nature, illiquid and marked with volatile movements.

Share Market Update on Central Bank of India for 1QFY2012

Share Market Update on Central Bank of India for 1QFY2012 with a Neutral recommendation.

For 1QFY2012, Central Bank of India posted a 16.6% yoy decline in its net profit primarily due to higher provisions. However, results were above our estimates on lower-than-estimated operating expenses. A sharp sequential dip in NIM and high slippages despite the pending switchover to system-based NPA platform were the key highlights of the results. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

NIM dips on lower yield on investments; slippages remain elevated: The bank’s business momentum slowed during the usually lean quarter. Advances declined by 2.8% qoq (up 17.2% yoy) and deposits increased by 3.6% qoq (up 20.3% yoy). CASA deposits growth moderated to 14.7% yoy, resulting in a 259bp qoq decline in CASA ratio to 32.6%. Bulk deposits and CDs constituted a relatively higher ~33% of total deposits. The reduction in CASA ratio and the higher interest rate environment resulted in a sharp 72bp qoq rise in cost of deposits to 6.8%. The yield on advances went up by 77bp qoq to 11.4%. Reported NIM declined sharply by 48bp qoq to 3.0% primarily due to fall in yield on investments (fall of 73bp qoq). The sequential decline in NIM was exacerbated by the benefit of interest on income tax refund of ~`130cr in 4QFY2011. Overall asset quality of the bank deteriorated during the quarter, with annualised slippage ratio remaining elevated at 1.8% (1.1% in 1QFY2011) and net NPAs rising by 27.7% qoq. Slippages remained elevated at 1.8% as compared to 1.1% in 1QFY2011. Provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs declined to 65.2% from 67.6% in 4QFY2011. The bank is yet to switchover to the system-based NPA recognition platform, which could result in a substantial rise in slippages given the bank’s rural branches (37%) and a relatively large agri (16%) portfolio.

Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at cheap valuations of 0.8x FY2013E ABV compared to its trading range of 0.5–1.5x with a median of 1.1x since listing in 2007. However, due to near-term asset-quality concerns because of system-based NPA recognition, we remain Neutral on the stock.

Share Market Update on Bhushan Steel for 1QFY2012

Share Market Update on Bhushan Steel for 1QFY2012 with a Neutral recommendation.

Strong top-line growth: During 1QFY2012, Bhushan Steel’s (BSL) net sales grew by 62.6% yoy to `2,232cr mainly on account of higher volumes of flat products. Flat products sales volumes grew by 80.2% yoy to 388,790 tonnes, while long product sales volumes grew by 7.6% yoy to 100,664 tonnes in 1QFY2012. Long product average realisation increased by 18.2% yoy to `42,915/tonne, while flat product average realisation decreased by 3.2% yoy to `49,294/tonne.

Depreciation and interest costs mute net profit growth: During 1QFY2012, EBITDA increased by 62.1% yoy to `661cr, representing EBITDA margin of 29.6%, compared to 29.7% in 1QFY2011. EBITDA/tonne increased to `13,505 (US$300) in 1QFY2012, compared to `13,186 (US$293) in 1QFY2011. Depreciation expense increased by 182.4% yoy to `151cr due to increased capacity, while interest expense increased by 173.8% yoy to `216cr because of higher debt. A sharp increase in depreciation and interest costs resulted in net profit growth of only 2.0% yoy (despite 62.1% growth in EBITDA) to `210cr.

Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 8.1x FY2012E and 7.1x FY2013E EV/EBITDA, a significant premium over its peers. Although we expect sales volume growth of 24.8% over FY2011–15E, we believe it is too early to play the volume growth story of BSL as strong volume growth is expected only post FY2013. Further, although BSL uses a combination of BF-EAF technology to produce steel, rising prices of iron ore and coal will affect its margins. Moreover, BSL’s debt-equity ratio remains high. Further, we believe the increase in the stock price in the past three months fairly discounts the growth prospects of BSL. Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Share Market Update on Federal Bank for 1QFY2012

Share Market Update on FederalBank for 1QFY2012 with a Buy recommendation and a Target Price of `478 (12 months).

For 1QFY2012, Federal Bank recorded net profit growth of 10.8% yoy (down 14.9% qoq), below our estimates, mostly due to higher provisioning expenses than built in by us. Management has attributed the rise in NPAs (slippages at `323cr) during the quarter to one-off employee-related issues, which led to a spurt in slippages in the retail book. Fee income according to management also suffered due to this one-off event. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.

CASA ratio improves; however, asset-quality woes continue: For 1QFY2011, advances grew by 0.1% qoq to `31,972cr, while deposits declined by 0.2% qoq to `42,936cr. Although total deposits declined during the quarter, the bank was able to sequentially grow its savings and current account deposits by 3.5% and 4.2%, respectively, leading to a 96bp increase in CASA ratio to 27.2%.  Including NRE deposits, total low-cost deposits constituted 32.8% of total deposits. Cost of deposits increased by 103bp qoq, leading to a 13bp qoq decline in reported NIM to 3.9%. Slippages for 1QFY2012 stood at `343cr (annualised 4.0%), driven by higher slippages on the retail (~`140cr) and SME (~`140cr) front. Management has attributed the increase in slippages on the retail side to one-off employee-related issues that cropped up during the quarter, leading to slackness on the recovery front. During 1QFY2012, non-interest income declined by 17.2% qoq (up 6.4% yoy), mainly due to sluggishness in fee-related initiatives and recoveries on the retail side (recoveries were down by 42.6% qoq), as per management.

Outlook and valuation: Post the recent correction, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2013E ABV. While lower leverage is leading to low RoE at present, the bank’s core RoA is relatively high and should improve further as asset-quality pressures start moderating. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `478.

Stock Market Update on Exide Industries for 1QFY2012

Stock Market Update on Exide Industries for 1QFY2012 with a Neutral recommendation

Exide Industries (Exide) reported a weak performance in 1QFY2012, missing our top-line and bottom-line estimates, largely due to lower-than-estimated growth in automotive replacement battery volumes and lower demand for inverter batteries. Further, slowdown in demand growth restricted Exide’s ability to completely pass on raw-material cost increases, thus negatively affecting its operating margin. We maintain our long-term positive outlook on the battery industry; however, considering the lower-than-expected 1QFY2012 results and subdued guidance for the next couple of quarters going ahead, we revise our revenue and earnings estimates downwards. We recommend Neutral on the stock.

Lower automotive and industrial battery demand and raw-material cost pressures led to weak quarterly performance: For 1QFY2012, Exide reported modest 8% yoy growth (1.4% qoq) in its total revenue to `1,244cr, led by a ~5% increase in sales realisation. Revenue growth was restricted on account of muted volume growth due to 1) slower growth in the automotive vehicle segment, resulting in lower OE demand for automotive batteries and 2) pleasant weather conditions in north Indian markets, leading to a 25.7% decline in inverter battery volumes. EBITDA margin declined substantially by 498bp yoy (88bp qoq) to 17.9%, impacted by lack of buoyancy in industrial and automotive batteries demand and increased lead prices. Lead prices jumped by 31% yoy, leading to a 400bp yoy increase in raw-material costs – which accounted for 63.6% of sales. However, higher other income of `31cr and lower tax outgo restricted the fall in net profit to a large extent. Thus, the bottom line reported a marginal 1.3% yoy decline (0.3% qoq) to `163cr.

Outlook and valuation: We expect Exide to post a ~15% revenue CAGR over FY2011–13E, leading to a 12% CAGR in net profit. At `155, Exide is fairly valued at 16.6x FY2013E earnings. We recommend Neutral on the stock. Our fair value for Exide works to `161. We value Exide’s core operations at 16x its FY2013E earnings at `149 and its stake in ING Vysya Life Insurance at `12/share on FY2013E NBAP.